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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Tsys Through First Support
MNI US OPEN - RBA Holds, Communication Turns Slightly Dovish
STIR: Year-end ECB Easing Expectations Inch Towards Recent Dovish Extremes
Year-end ECB implied rates have inched back towards the post-June meeting dovish extremes, with OIS currently pricing 47bps of easing through the remainder of this year.
- There remains an ~80% implied probability of a 25bp cut through the September meeting, with VP de Guindos the latest to hint at such a move yesterday morning.
- De Guindos and Lane are both have scheduled appearances at the ongoing ECB-IMF conference on “Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy”.
- De Guindos chairs the keynote session covering “Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents”, while Lane appears on a panel on “The global 'new normal': fragmentation, tensions, and uncertainty”.
- PMIs headline the regional data calendar, with the BoC decision also of interest this afternoon.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.462 | -20.3 |
Oct-24 | 3.393 | -27.2 |
Dec-24 | 3.195 | -47.0 |
Jan-25 | 3.096 | -56.9 |
Mar-25 | 2.926 | -73.9 |
Apr-25 | 2.835 | -83.0 |
Jun-25 | 2.677 | -98.8 |
Jul-25 | 2.600 | -106.5 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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