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Strong ADP Headline Beat, Offset With Caution On Wages

US DATA

A strong beat on the headline ADP number for May (+278k vs +170k expected and only modest revisions to prior), but with this cautionary note on wages (which were up 6.5% Y/Y overall vs 6.7% in Apr) from the release (job changer wages rose by a still-robust 12.1% in May):

  • "This is the second month we've seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring."
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