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Strong Bias In PBOC Fix Supports Offshore Yuan

CNH

Spot USD/CNH went offered in the wake of a firmer than expected PBOC fix and last changes hands at CNH6.3162, down 107 pips on the day.

  • The PBOC set the yuan reference rate at CNY6.3185, 54 pips below sell-side estimate, in a U-turn from their recent predilection to resist excessive redback appreciation. Today's was the strongest bias since Oct 2020.
  • Looking ahead, focus turns to Chinese inflation data, due for release tomorrow. The consensus view is that factory-gate price growth may have eased to +8.6% Y/Y in February, while consumer prices likely grew at a steady pace of +0.9% Y/Y.
  • The cycle low of CNH6.3060 printed on Feb 24 provides the initial layer of support, while bulls look for a break above Feb 22 high of CNH6.3445.

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