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Strong Close To The Week For BoE/ECB Implied Hikes

STIR
As with longer-dated yields, 2023 ECB and BoE hike pricing look set to close the day/week at a fresh post-Silicon Valley Bank/Credit Suisse crisis high.
  • May ECB pricing suggests about 30% chance of a 50bp hike, vs 70% for a 25bp raise. That would the highest close since the ECB's March decision, and up 10bp this week. ECB terminal Depo rate pricing +5.9bp to 3.77% (Oct - 77bp of total hikes remaining).
  • For BoE, a May hike remains in the balance, with 20bp priced, flat on the day and only marginally higher on the week. Terminal pricing Bank Rate pricing on the other hand is up 6.7bp today at 4.76% (51bp of total hikes).

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