MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Strong Flash April US PMIs Take Air Out of Year-End Rate Cut

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures reverse early session gains to moderately lower after the S&P Global PMIs for April came out much stronger than expected (MFG 40.4 vs. 49.0; Srvcs 53.7 vs. 51.5; Comp 53.5 vs. 51.2 est).
  • Front month 10Y futures hit a pre-data high of 115-00 (3.4977% low yld) before falling to a post-data low of 114-13 (-8; yield rebounding to 3.5776% high) amid renewed selling ahead the weekend.
  • Reminder, Fed Gov Cook will discuss economic research at 1600ET before the Federal Reserve enters policy blackout at midnight tonight through May 4.
  • From a technical perspective, 10Y futures remain in a short-term downtrend and the recovery since Thursday is considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and pierced 114-00. This signals scope for weakness to 113-23, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Fed funds implied hike for May'23 remains largely static at 22bp, Jun'23 +29bp cumulative at 5.118%, while projected rate cuts later in the year receded following this morning's data: Nov'23 cumulative -5.2bp vs. 11bp earlier to 4.776%, Dec'23 cumulative -24.1bp vs. -31bp at 4.776%. Fed Terminal currently at 5.11% in Jul'23.
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