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Strong May CPI Print Raises 'Hawkish' Tone

HUNGARY
  • Yesterday, Hungary May CPI came in slightly lower than expected at 5.1% (vs. 5.3% exp.), leading to more hawkish tone from NBH policymaker.
  • Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag once again confirmed that he sees the end of ultra-loose monetary policy due to sustained CPI risks and therefore thinks that the NBH needs to gradually normalize ST rates. Virag expects CPI to be higher than 4% this year (above the NBH upper tolerance band).
  • Governor György Matolcsy also mentioned that monetary tightening is necessary following CPI data.
  • Core CPI was up to 3.4% in May (from 3.2% the previous month), implying that core prices are still standing below the NBH 4-percent upper tolerance.
  • In the past few months, we have seen that the spike in inflation has led to an in disagreements between NBH policymakers over the trajectory of rates in the coming months.
  • This morning, the NBH is expected to keep its 1W deposit rate steady at 0.75% (at its weekly meeting).
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