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Strong NFP Step in Right Direction on “Substantial Further Progress”

DATA REACT

Fri's better than expected July NFP jobs gain of +943K vs. +858k est (+850k Jun), increases the debate on when the labor market will meet the FOMC's criteria of 'substantial further progress' Wells Fargo economists said, while the increasing spread of Covid Delta-variant "clouds the outlook" somewhat.

  • "Fed officials will likely be pleased with July's progress, but we ultimately think they will want to see further ground recovered and if constraints boil down to short-term frictions or longer-lasting damage before kicking off tapering."
While a step in the right direction, Wells said the Fed likely needs additional progress and "better visibility on labor supply" before tapering QE.
  • "A clearer picture of whether the current weakness in the labor supply largely boils down to short-term frictions or longer-lasting damage will probably not emerge until the October jobs report is released on November 5, two days after the November FOMC meeting concludes."

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