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Strong Q1 GDP Print Consistent With Survey Outperformance

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Spanish Q1 flash GDP was stronger than expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. GDP rose 0.7% Q/Q SWDA (vs 0.4% cons) and 2.4% Y/Y SWDA (vs 1.9% cons). The Q4 ’23 prints were also revised 0.1pp higher (to 0.7% Q/Q and 2.1% Y/Y).

  • Analysts had recently revised their Q1 GDP forecasts upward to 0.35% Q/Q (vs 0.3% prior), making today’s beat all the more impressive.
  • Nevertheless, the strong Spanish activity levels come following expansionary signals in Spanish survey data (e.g PMIs and INE’s Business Confidence Survey).
  • The press release notes that external demand drove quarterly growth in Q1, contributing 0.5pp to the 0.7% Q/Q print. Domestic demand contributed the remaining 0.2pp.
  • Export growth was 2.4% Q/Q while imports grew 1.1%.
  • Household consumption rose 0.3% Q/Q, while government spending fell 1.0%. Gross fixed capital formation registered a strong 2.6% reading.
  • We will follow with an analysis of productivity and the GDP deflator in due course.


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Spanish Q1 flash GDP was stronger than expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. GDP rose 0.7% Q/Q SWDA (vs 0.4% cons) and 2.4% Y/Y SWDA (vs 1.9% cons). The Q4 ’23 prints were also revised 0.1pp higher (to 0.7% Q/Q and 2.1% Y/Y).

  • Analysts had recently revised their Q1 GDP forecasts upward to 0.35% Q/Q (vs 0.3% prior), making today’s beat all the more impressive.
  • Nevertheless, the strong Spanish activity levels come following expansionary signals in Spanish survey data (e.g PMIs and INE’s Business Confidence Survey).
  • The press release notes that external demand drove quarterly growth in Q1, contributing 0.5pp to the 0.7% Q/Q print. Domestic demand contributed the remaining 0.2pp.
  • Export growth was 2.4% Q/Q while imports grew 1.1%.
  • Household consumption rose 0.3% Q/Q, while government spending fell 1.0%. Gross fixed capital formation registered a strong 2.6% reading.
  • We will follow with an analysis of productivity and the GDP deflator in due course.