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Free AccessStrong Q1 GDP Print Consistent With Survey Outperformance
Spanish Q1 flash GDP was stronger than expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. GDP rose 0.7% Q/Q SWDA (vs 0.4% cons) and 2.4% Y/Y SWDA (vs 1.9% cons). The Q4 ’23 prints were also revised 0.1pp higher (to 0.7% Q/Q and 2.1% Y/Y).
- Analysts had recently revised their Q1 GDP forecasts upward to 0.35% Q/Q (vs 0.3% prior), making today’s beat all the more impressive.
- Nevertheless, the strong Spanish activity levels come following expansionary signals in Spanish survey data (e.g PMIs and INE’s Business Confidence Survey).
- The press release notes that external demand drove quarterly growth in Q1, contributing 0.5pp to the 0.7% Q/Q print. Domestic demand contributed the remaining 0.2pp.
- Export growth was 2.4% Q/Q while imports grew 1.1%.
- Household consumption rose 0.3% Q/Q, while government spending fell 1.0%. Gross fixed capital formation registered a strong 2.6% reading.
- We will follow with an analysis of productivity and the GDP deflator in due course.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.