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Strong Q3 Growth But Consumer Softening, RBNZ Watching

NEW ZEALAND

Production-based GDP rose a much stronger than expected 2% q/q in Q3 to be up 6.4% y/y, which was boosted by very positive base effects. The expenditure measure of GDP also rose 2% q/q. Even though this data is backward looking, it is unsurprising that the RBNZ said yesterday that the challenge is to bring growth down in order to combat inflation. Q4 started from a position of strength and the RBNZ will be watching developments closely before its February meeting.

  • The expenditure measure of GDP rose 2% q/q after an upwardly revised 2.3% in Q2. This brought the annual rate to 6.5%, which was boosted by Covid-related base effects. The main contributors were net exports, with exports up 7.8% q/q, and investment rising 3.3% q/q, with the strength broad based. Household consumption fell 0.1% q/q, which was the second consecutive negative quarter, possibly reflecting the impact of higher rates.
  • Activity was driven by transport, postal and warehousing, which rose 9.7%. This sector includes tourism which is benefiting from the post-Covid border reopening. Services exports rose 25.7% q/q. Good-producing industries rose 2.4% and construction 5.1%.
NZ GDP (expenditure) y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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