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SWEDEN: Strong Retail Sales In December, Some Questions On Seasonal Adjustment

SWEDEN
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Only three analysts had submitted forecasts for Swedish December retail sales (excluding fuel), but the 2.9% M/M SA print is still notable relative to the 0.4% consensus (and -0.2% prior). This was the highest sequential monthly reading since December 2019. EURSEK fell 50 pips on release but is since back to pre-decision levels. 

  • On a 3m/3m basis, sales ex motor vehicles grew 2.2% (vs 1.3% prior). This mirrors strong increases in retail sentiment in recent months, and bodes well for private consumption’s development in Q4. The Riksbank project a consumer-led economic recovery in 2025.
  • The strong print could represent solid consumer spending ahead of the Christmas period, but we also caution that the seasonal adjustment procedure may have flattered the results. Plotting M/M SA December prints since 2012, the 2024 and 2019 data certainly stand out.
  • Retail trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles (but including fuel) rose 1.3% M/M (vs 0.7% prior). Increases were quite broad-based across other components relatively to November. 
sw_retail_sales
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Only three analysts had submitted forecasts for Swedish December retail sales (excluding fuel), but the 2.9% M/M SA print is still notable relative to the 0.4% consensus (and -0.2% prior). This was the highest sequential monthly reading since December 2019. EURSEK fell 50 pips on release but is since back to pre-decision levels. 

  • On a 3m/3m basis, sales ex motor vehicles grew 2.2% (vs 1.3% prior). This mirrors strong increases in retail sentiment in recent months, and bodes well for private consumption’s development in Q4. The Riksbank project a consumer-led economic recovery in 2025.
  • The strong print could represent solid consumer spending ahead of the Christmas period, but we also caution that the seasonal adjustment procedure may have flattered the results. Plotting M/M SA December prints since 2012, the 2024 and 2019 data certainly stand out.
  • Retail trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles (but including fuel) rose 1.3% M/M (vs 0.7% prior). Increases were quite broad-based across other components relatively to November. 
sw_retail_sales