Free Trial

Strong Reversal Lower As USDBRL Holds Below 5.3518 Resistance

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair has today traded to a fresh cycle high of 5.3409. Despite initial resistance at 5.3073 being breached, the pair has held below 5.3518, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 2 bear leg.
    • With the pair reversing close to 2% lower amid a similar recovery for its Mexican counterpart the key medium-term technical parameters appear in place for USDBRL.
    • Key support to watch lies at 5.1012, the Mar 8 low. A break of this level would instead signal scope for a return to 4.9410, the Feb 2 low. Initial firm support lies at 5.2038, Thursday’s intraday low and just below the 50-day EMA.
  • With both the BCB decision and today’s inflation data out of the way, the focus next week will be on the Copom minutes and any further details on the new fiscal framework. As a reminder, details were to be announced following President Lula’s trip to China. However, given the President’s poor health and the associated postponement of the start of that trip, markets will await further details eagerly.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.