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Free AccessStrong Reversal Lower As USDBRL Holds Below 5.3518 Resistance
- USDBRL short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair has today traded to a fresh cycle high of 5.3409. Despite initial resistance at 5.3073 being breached, the pair has held below 5.3518, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 2 bear leg.
- With the pair reversing close to 2% lower amid a similar recovery for its Mexican counterpart the key medium-term technical parameters appear in place for USDBRL.
- Key support to watch lies at 5.1012, the Mar 8 low. A break of this level would instead signal scope for a return to 4.9410, the Feb 2 low. Initial firm support lies at 5.2038, Thursday’s intraday low and just below the 50-day EMA.
- With both the BCB decision and today’s inflation data out of the way, the focus next week will be on the Copom minutes and any further details on the new fiscal framework. As a reminder, details were to be announced following President Lula’s trip to China. However, given the President’s poor health and the associated postponement of the start of that trip, markets will await further details eagerly.
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Why MNI
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