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Strong Selling Forces Send USDTRY Above 16

TURKEY
  • Selling pressure on the TRY remains elevated amid surging political divergence (between Turkey and the West – NATO) and dovish CBRT.
  • The central bank is meeting on May 26 and is expected to maintain its 1W depo rate steady at 14% despite de-anchoring inflation expectations.
  • CBRT recently reviewed its year-end inflation forecast to the upside to 58% (from 46% previously).
  • Sovereign risk has also been rising this month, with the 5Y CDS currently standing at 731bps.
  • The CRBT has been protecting the exchange rate at around 16 (used 1.5bn USD net reserves on May 20th to protect the ceiling); however, the strong selling forces finally led to a breakout above the 16 level in today’s trading session.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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