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Strong Yen Turnaround As Core Yields Surge Higher, GBPJPY Spikes

JPY
  • In line with the sharp reversal for US yields following the US inflation data and the continued pressure on the UK front-end, the Japanese Yen is the poorest performing currency in G10 on Tuesday with GBPJPY rising as much as 1.15% as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • USDJPY has bounced around 125 pips from the earlier 139.01 lows, reinforcing the bullish technical trend conditions. Attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.30 today. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high.
  • Interestingly, GBPJPY has extended its move back above 175 and looks set to close at its best level since late 2015.
  • Worth noting that the Bank of Japan meeting/decision is this Friday. Earlier MNI reported that there is no prospect that the Bank of Japan will scrap yield curve control this year, because even if policymakers become confident of a virtuous cycle between wage hikes and price rises they would still want to avoid any sharp rise in interest rates, MNI understands.
  • Whilst it is possible that the BOJ could adjust the parameters of its yield curve policy, perhaps by modifying the zero percent target rate at the centre of its -0.5% to 0.5% tolerance band for the 10-year bond, this would only be to mitigate unwanted bond market distortions.

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