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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Stronger, At Bests, Narrow Range
ACGBs sit at or near session highs (YM +7.0 & XM +9.0) after a relatively narrow range. Trade Balance data and the RBA Financial Stability Review (FSR) failed to spark a market reaction with later session strength seemingly tied more to the richening in US Tsys (yields 2-3bp lower) in Asia-Pac trade.
- Cash ACGBs are 7-9bp stronger on the day with the 3/10 curve 2bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential -2bp at -10bp.
- Swap rates are 6-8bp lower with EFPs 1bp wider.
- Bills pricing is +1 to +7 with reds leading.
- RBA dated OIS pricing is 1-5bp softer across meetings beyond May with a 22% chance of 25bp tightening priced for May. 27bp of easing is priced by year-end.
- On the local data front, February’s trade balance printed a much larger-than-expected surplus of A$13.87bn (versus A$11.22bn expected) as imports dropped 9.1% M/M.
- The FSR stated that households and firms were well-placed to cope with higher interest rates. RBA also noted that about 40% of home loans have less than 3-months buffer.
- With the global calendar light ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, the direction in the local market will likely be guided by risk appetite and US Tsys.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.