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Stronger Than Expected NFP Report But Less Hawkish Than Rounded Figures Suggested

US DATA
  • Nonfarm payrolls employment was slightly stronger than expected in November (199k vs cons 185k) but offset by a -35k two-month revision (all back in Sep).
  • Private payrolls added a softer note, slightly missing with 150k vs cons 159k, as the public sector continued outsized contributions, this time with a large 49k.
  • The BLS diffusion index partly reversed its sharp dip in Oct, rising from 52.2 to 54.6, but remains low by recent standards.
  • AHE beat expectations but were exaggerated by rounding (0.35% M/M vs cons 0.3) after 0.21% M/M. It had an added hawkish twist from higher average hours worked, ticking back up 0.1 to 34.4 to maintain the 34.3-34.4 range seen since April for still at the lower end of the 34.3-34.6 range seen in a particularly stable period through 2011-19.
  • Ever volatile employment in the separate household survey swung back to increase 747k after -348k, but the strength was notable as it drove a lower-than-expected unemployment rate.
  • However, as with the AHE data, the u/e rate was less hawkish than first appeared, at 3.74% vs cons 3.9 with a skew lower). The surprise dip lower does however mean its averaged 3.81% in Oct-Nov vs the FOMC median forecast of 3.8% for 4Q23 rather than looking set to overshoot it. That same FOMC forecast saw it going to 4.1% in 4Q24.

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