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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessStronger Than Expected NFP Report But Less Hawkish Than Rounded Figures Suggested
- Nonfarm payrolls employment was slightly stronger than expected in November (199k vs cons 185k) but offset by a -35k two-month revision (all back in Sep).
- Private payrolls added a softer note, slightly missing with 150k vs cons 159k, as the public sector continued outsized contributions, this time with a large 49k.
- The BLS diffusion index partly reversed its sharp dip in Oct, rising from 52.2 to 54.6, but remains low by recent standards.
- AHE beat expectations but were exaggerated by rounding (0.35% M/M vs cons 0.3) after 0.21% M/M. It had an added hawkish twist from higher average hours worked, ticking back up 0.1 to 34.4 to maintain the 34.3-34.4 range seen since April for still at the lower end of the 34.3-34.6 range seen in a particularly stable period through 2011-19.
- Ever volatile employment in the separate household survey swung back to increase 747k after -348k, but the strength was notable as it drove a lower-than-expected unemployment rate.
- However, as with the AHE data, the u/e rate was less hawkish than first appeared, at 3.74% vs cons 3.9 with a skew lower). The surprise dip lower does however mean its averaged 3.81% in Oct-Nov vs the FOMC median forecast of 3.8% for 4Q23 rather than looking set to overshoot it. That same FOMC forecast saw it going to 4.1% in 4Q24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.