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Stubborn USD/JPY Sellers Keep Lid on USD Index

FOREX
  • Following the USD's corrective bounce into the Thursday close, the greenback is holding the bulk of gains, however EUR/USD and GBP/USD have drifted off lows. The USD/JPY rate has found persistent resistance layered just above Y149.80, with selling pressure preventing a broader break higher in the pair. The longer this holds, the more likely a further recovery in USD pairs ahead of the NY crossover.
  • Elsewhere the SEK trades firmly, higher against all others in G10 as the Riksbank disclose the details of the first week of their FX hedging programme. The bank sold $390mln, but declined to sell any EUR across the period, helping pressure EUR/SEK and USD/SEK to pullback lows ahead of the NY crossover. EUR/SEK touched pullback lows of 11.5244 before stabilising. EUR/SEK support undercuts at 11.5172 ahead of the 200-dma of 11.4914.
  • Chinese inflation data overnight came in below expected, at 0.0% Y/Y for CPI and -2.5% for PPI, a release that's been followed by further communications from the PBOC, who stressed that they expect the external pressure on the currency to ease going forward as the US-China yield differential normalizes.
  • Focus ahead turns to the UMich sentiment survey, at which markets expect inflation expectations to stick at 3.2% over the 1-year, and 2.8% for the 5-10y horizon.
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