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Sub-Par ISM Services Employment Not Worrisome, But Some Cracks Showing

US

Ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls figure, October's ISM Services employment numbers were always going to get some outsized attention.

  • At 49.1, the subgauge slipped below 50 for the first time in 3 months and was down from 53 prior.
  • That might help bias down expectations for Friday's NFPs at the margins. But worth considering that the reading has now been below 50 for 5 of the 10 months of 2022, and it hasn't been a bad year for jobs growth.
  • Most of the weakness this year has been due to lack of (qualified) supply, though there may be some cracks appearing on the demand side. In this survey, worth noting "There are still challenges in hiring qualified workers, and due to uncertainty regarding economic conditions, some companies are holding off on backfilling open positions."

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