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CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Ahead Of US CPI Today & AU Jobs Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

In roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM -2.2 & XM -5.7) are cheaper on a data-light Sydney session. Andrew Hauser, RBA Deputy Governor, will give a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner aftermarket.

  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of US CPI data later today. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-6bps cheaper on the day but remain 2-8bps richer, with a steeper curve, than yesterday’s pre-RBA levels.
  • The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -4bps, around its lowest since July.
  • Swap rates are flat to 4bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to -1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is largely unchanged today but remains 3–12bps softer than pre-RBA levels observed yesterday. A 25bp rate cut is now more than fully priced for April, with market expectations at 115%. The market assigns a 60% chance to a 25bp cut at February’s meeting.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the November Employment Report. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 25k rise in new jobs and a 0.1pp rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. The RBA continued to describe the labour market as tight in its December statement noting that some indicators had “stabilised”, including hours worked, underemployment and the youth unemployment rate. 
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In roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM -2.2 & XM -5.7) are cheaper on a data-light Sydney session. Andrew Hauser, RBA Deputy Governor, will give a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner aftermarket.

  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of US CPI data later today. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-6bps cheaper on the day but remain 2-8bps richer, with a steeper curve, than yesterday’s pre-RBA levels.
  • The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -4bps, around its lowest since July.
  • Swap rates are flat to 4bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to -1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is largely unchanged today but remains 3–12bps softer than pre-RBA levels observed yesterday. A 25bp rate cut is now more than fully priced for April, with market expectations at 115%. The market assigns a 60% chance to a 25bp cut at February’s meeting.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the November Employment Report. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 25k rise in new jobs and a 0.1pp rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. The RBA continued to describe the labour market as tight in its December statement noting that some indicators had “stabilised”, including hours worked, underemployment and the youth unemployment rate.