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CONSUMER STAPLES: Sudzucker; 7Y FV

CONSUMER STAPLES
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(SZUGR; Baa2 Neg/BBB Neg)

Another not-so-great issuer choosing retail denoms - seems to be in-vogue.
We flagged CDS looked exposed in early July last year which has played out since. Sentiment seems to have caught up to the name now - generally a time to search for value but we are struggling to find where positives will come from in near-term. The negative catalyst to come include Ukraine's allowance to bring tariff-free sugar supply till June and the co's guidance for next year (12m to Feb '26) to stay a operating loss (EBIT <0) in core sugar segment. Rating agencies have reacted to the current FY guidance (EBITDA will more than half to guided €550-650m) - downgrades will depend on if/how quickly earnings can bounce - that in turn dependent on sugar prices.

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(SZUGR; Baa2 Neg/BBB Neg)

Another not-so-great issuer choosing retail denoms - seems to be in-vogue.
We flagged CDS looked exposed in early July last year which has played out since. Sentiment seems to have caught up to the name now - generally a time to search for value but we are struggling to find where positives will come from in near-term. The negative catalyst to come include Ukraine's allowance to bring tariff-free sugar supply till June and the co's guidance for next year (12m to Feb '26) to stay a operating loss (EBIT <0) in core sugar segment. Rating agencies have reacted to the current FY guidance (EBITDA will more than half to guided €550-650m) - downgrades will depend on if/how quickly earnings can bounce - that in turn dependent on sugar prices.

Keep reading...Show less