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Summary – April 23

LATAM
  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey today, which will be of particular interest given the recent FX pressures and deterioration of external conditions. Last week, the year-end USDBRL and SELIC rate forecasts both edged higher. Brazil March tax collection data will also cross, followed by Colombia industrial and retail confidence and Argentina economic activity numbers. In the US, the focus turns to advance US April PMI figures and the new home sales release. The central bank speaker slate revolves around the ECB's Nagel, while the Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
  • Global News:
    • EU (MNI) – Assuming no major surprises in the coming weeks, an ECB rate cut in June is a “fait accompli”, Vice President Luis de Guindos told Le Monde in an interview published Tuesday. Asked how quickly further rate cuts could follow, de Guindos said it depended on data, the geopolitical situation and the impact on energy costs, adding policymakers will also need to see wage and productivity developments.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank would tweak the degree of easy policy through adjustments to the unsecured overnight call loan rate if inflation rises to its 2% target as expected. Ueda, however, told reporters the Bank must maintain easy policy as the underlying inflation trend remains below this level.
    • JAPAN – The yen’s depreciation against the dollar has been excessive given economic fundamentals, said Masakazu Tokura, the head of Japan’s biggest business lobby group known as Keidanren. The government and the BoJ have intervened in the past when the yen has weakened excessively, Tokura said. An ‘appropriate decision’ will be made, Tokura said.
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