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Summary – August 05

LATAM
  • Recession fears in the US continue to be the dominating driver of risk-off sentiment across global markets. The sharp moves for both core yields and major equity indices have filtered through to substantial strength for the Japanese Yen, extending its huge rally since Mid-July. In emerging markets, USDMXN currently trades up almost 3.00% as the risk off theme develops and attractive carry positions such as MXNJPY (-5.8%) continue to plummet.
  • On the data front, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, followed by July services PMI data in Brazil and June export numbers for Colombia, before focus turns to the minutes for the recent BanRep MPC meeting. In the US, the July ISM Services report takes on even greater importance than usual, as the next major US data point after the poor July employment report.
  • Global news:
    • WORLD – The sell-off in risk assets has intensified today due to mounting concerns over the US economy and tighter monetary policy, exacerbated by an extended rout in Japanese equities. Many markets have hit multiple circuit breakers today, with Japan's Nikkei 225 closing over 12% lower. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 6.5% before quickly paring losses to about 4%, while those on the S&P 500 have slid more than 2.5%.
    • US/ISRAEL (MNI) – Axios reported overnight that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told fellow G7 foreign ministers that Iran and/or Hezbollah could attack Israel as soon as today in response to the killing of Hamas political director Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. In a conference call, Blinken called for as much diplomatic pressure as possible to be exerted on Iran to stop any retaliation, but that if this proved impossible then he "stressed that limiting the impact of their strikes is the best chance to prevent all-out war."
    • CHINA – China announced a sweeping plan to boost consumption by improving the supply of services, seeking to bolster a bright spot in domestic demand as the manufacturing sector’s momentum cools. The State Council issued a 20-point proposal on Saturday, aimed at raising the quality of services spanning restaurants, tourism, entertainment and elderly care. The measures are followed by the release of a Caixin survey on Monday showing services expanded for 19th straight months in July.
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  • Recession fears in the US continue to be the dominating driver of risk-off sentiment across global markets. The sharp moves for both core yields and major equity indices have filtered through to substantial strength for the Japanese Yen, extending its huge rally since Mid-July. In emerging markets, USDMXN currently trades up almost 3.00% as the risk off theme develops and attractive carry positions such as MXNJPY (-5.8%) continue to plummet.
  • On the data front, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, followed by July services PMI data in Brazil and June export numbers for Colombia, before focus turns to the minutes for the recent BanRep MPC meeting. In the US, the July ISM Services report takes on even greater importance than usual, as the next major US data point after the poor July employment report.
  • Global news:
    • WORLD – The sell-off in risk assets has intensified today due to mounting concerns over the US economy and tighter monetary policy, exacerbated by an extended rout in Japanese equities. Many markets have hit multiple circuit breakers today, with Japan's Nikkei 225 closing over 12% lower. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 6.5% before quickly paring losses to about 4%, while those on the S&P 500 have slid more than 2.5%.
    • US/ISRAEL (MNI) – Axios reported overnight that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told fellow G7 foreign ministers that Iran and/or Hezbollah could attack Israel as soon as today in response to the killing of Hamas political director Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. In a conference call, Blinken called for as much diplomatic pressure as possible to be exerted on Iran to stop any retaliation, but that if this proved impossible then he "stressed that limiting the impact of their strikes is the best chance to prevent all-out war."
    • CHINA – China announced a sweeping plan to boost consumption by improving the supply of services, seeking to bolster a bright spot in domestic demand as the manufacturing sector’s momentum cools. The State Council issued a 20-point proposal on Saturday, aimed at raising the quality of services spanning restaurants, tourism, entertainment and elderly care. The measures are followed by the release of a Caixin survey on Monday showing services expanded for 19th straight months in July.