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Summary – August 06

LATAM
  • On Tuesday, the Copom minutes will be key to understanding the conditions necessary to an eventual Selic rate move. Brazil trade data for July will also cross, while in Mexico, the Citi survey of economists will be published, including forecasts for this week’s Banxico meeting. In Argentina, the latest BCRA survey is due. In the US, today’s data is limited to international trade and we likely have to wait for Thursday’s weekly jobless claims for the next US macro steer, which leaves sentiment in the driving seat for now.
  • USD – The greenback is firming further headed into the NY crossover, with volumes picking up. Dollar's haven status clearly playing out here, with the greenback firmer against all others in G10 - leaving markets on watch for any further deterioration in market conditions, and any trigger from global tech names, geopolitics or any resumption in the JPY short-covering rally.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Monday the Fed will need to make adjustments to the fed funds rate in the coming quarters, but indicated a need for more data and patience while waiting until the next FOMC meeting in September. “How much that needs to be done and when it needs to take place, I think that's going to depend a lot on the incoming information." Daly said.
    • JAPAN – Japanese stocks rallied after their plunge into a bear market during the previous day’s trading brought them down to key technical levels. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average and Topix rebounded more than 9%, the most since October 2008, as exporters such as tech companies and automakers surged after the yen slumped about 1% against the dollar.
    • MIDEAST – The US and its allies are working to head off an Iranian attack on Israel and avert a wider regional war as concerns grew that a strike may come at any moment in retaliation for the killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran. The Biden administration moved additional forces to the region, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken conferred with top officials from Qatar and Egypt on Monday, according to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
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