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LATAM: Summary – January 10

LATAM
  • Brazil IPCA inflation is due on Friday, with the headline rate forecast to remain steady at 4.84% y/y in December. Mexico IP is expected to fall by 1.4% y/y in November, while in Chile the BCCh releases its latest economist survey.
  • In the US, nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at 165k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%. Canadian jobs numbers are also due.
  • The dollar index is unchanged as we approach the key labour market data in the US, with EURUSD holding close to 1.0300 into the NY session open. Volatility for the Japanese Yen has been in focus early Friday following a Bloomberg sources piece suggesting that BoJ officials will discuss raising inflation forecasts at its January meeting. USDJPY traded from around 158.40 down to 157.63 briefly on the back of the report, highlighting the growing intervention risks at these levels and the short-term fragility of holding JPY shorts.
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  • Brazil IPCA inflation is due on Friday, with the headline rate forecast to remain steady at 4.84% y/y in December. Mexico IP is expected to fall by 1.4% y/y in November, while in Chile the BCCh releases its latest economist survey.
  • In the US, nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at 165k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%. Canadian jobs numbers are also due.
  • The dollar index is unchanged as we approach the key labour market data in the US, with EURUSD holding close to 1.0300 into the NY session open. Volatility for the Japanese Yen has been in focus early Friday following a Bloomberg sources piece suggesting that BoJ officials will discuss raising inflation forecasts at its January meeting. USDJPY traded from around 158.40 down to 157.63 briefly on the back of the report, highlighting the growing intervention risks at these levels and the short-term fragility of holding JPY shorts.