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Summary – July 03

LATAM
  • Brazil industrial production for May will cross on Wednesday, followed by services and composite PMI figures for June. Mexico, Brazil and Argentina vehicle sales for June will also cross. In the US, weekly jobless claims data is due - brought forward by one day from the usual schedule due to market closures around the July 4th holidays this week. ISM services data is set to follow. Meanwhile, the ECB's Lane, Knot and Lagarde are set to make further appearances at the ECB's Sintra conference, while the FOMC minutes are set for release after the European close.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – FOMC commentary in the last three weeks has reinforced the main theme from the June meeting, that despite the more encouraging inflation data of late, policymakers are not in a rush to cut rates. In that regard, the key aspect to watch in the minutes to the June FOMC meeting is the Committee's take on the latest data and the degree to which such readings provide "confidence" for cutting rates.
    • FRANCE – Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is scrambling to get an absolute majority in the final round of France’s legislative election Sunday as rival parties are manoeuvring to keep the far-right party out of power. President Macron’s centrist group and the broad, left-wing New Popular Front alliance have pulled their candidates out of 215 runoffs with more than two candidates to avoid splitting the vote against the far right, according to a count by Le Monde newspaper.
    • US – President Biden’s favourability numbers plummeted after his debate performance last week in “the largest single-week drop” in nearly three years, according to a leaked memo from a pollster that was published Tuesday by the news site Puck. “Underpinning the decline is an increase in already-high concerns about the President’s age, and a growing split among Democrats about what should happen with his candidacy,” says the memo from Open Labs.
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