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Summary – July 04

LATAM
  • On Thursday, BanRep will publish the minutes to its June monetary policy meeting, while Colombia May export data will also be released. In Brazil, June trade figures will cross, while Mexico will publish the May leading indicator. In Argentina, the BCRA’s latest analyst survey is due. Elsewhere, the US is closed for the July 4th holiday, with focus turning to employment data on Friday.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – Federal Reserve officials need additional signs that inflation is heading back toward their 2% target before considering any interest rate cuts, according to minutes from the central bank’s June meeting released Wednesday that showed increasing concern over signs of economic weakness.
    • UK – Voters head to the polls for the UK general election after the last campaign day was dominated by more opinion polls projecting an historic victory for Keir Starmer. YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. These numbers would give Labour a majority of 212, the largest the party has ever enjoyed.
    • US – Focus remains on Biden's election prospects and whether he will stay in the race. A group of Democrat Governors backed the President, but several Senate Democrats have privately indicated they don’t see a way for him to survive politically after last week’s disastrous debate, one Democratic senator said.

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