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Summary – July 16

LATAM
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsBank of Japan (BOJ) Market News
  • Argentina will publish June budget balance data on Tuesday, with officials recently saying that another fiscal surplus is expected. Elsewhere, focus turns to Canada's June CPI and the US retail sales release, where headline sales are expected to decline by 0.3% m/m, but sales ex-autos and ex-autos and gas are expected to fare better.
  • The central bank speaker slate revolves around Fed's Kugler, who appears after the London close at an NABE conference on challenges to economic measurement. Kugler, a permanent voter on the FOMC, last spoke in June and warned against discounting upside risks to inflation, stating the need to see more progress on wage moderation.
  • Global news:
    • US - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said inflation is coming down in a way that bolsters confidence it’s on its way to 2%. While the economy is slowing and policymakers should pay attention to labour market risks now as well as inflation, “we have a lot more information to get before we can make any real determination,” the San Francisco Fed chief said.
    • US - Former President Donald Trump announced on 15 July that freshman US Senator from Ohio JD Vance would be his vice presidential running mate on the Republican ticket in November. Vance won Ohio's US Senate seat vacated by Republican Rob Portman in 2022 thanks to the backing of Trump and the 'MAGA movement'.
    • JAPAN - Japan likely stepped into the currency market for a second straight day on Friday, a Bloomberg analysis of the central bank’s current account indicates. Tokyo’s latest market entry was likely around ¥2.14 trillion ($13.5 billion), based on a comparison of BoJ current account data and money broker forecasts. The suspected second intervention, if confirmed, would be a fresh example of the government conducting a follow-up move after a larger-scale operation to keep traders on alert.
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  • Argentina will publish June budget balance data on Tuesday, with officials recently saying that another fiscal surplus is expected. Elsewhere, focus turns to Canada's June CPI and the US retail sales release, where headline sales are expected to decline by 0.3% m/m, but sales ex-autos and ex-autos and gas are expected to fare better.
  • The central bank speaker slate revolves around Fed's Kugler, who appears after the London close at an NABE conference on challenges to economic measurement. Kugler, a permanent voter on the FOMC, last spoke in June and warned against discounting upside risks to inflation, stating the need to see more progress on wage moderation.
  • Global news:
    • US - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said inflation is coming down in a way that bolsters confidence it’s on its way to 2%. While the economy is slowing and policymakers should pay attention to labour market risks now as well as inflation, “we have a lot more information to get before we can make any real determination,” the San Francisco Fed chief said.
    • US - Former President Donald Trump announced on 15 July that freshman US Senator from Ohio JD Vance would be his vice presidential running mate on the Republican ticket in November. Vance won Ohio's US Senate seat vacated by Republican Rob Portman in 2022 thanks to the backing of Trump and the 'MAGA movement'.
    • JAPAN - Japan likely stepped into the currency market for a second straight day on Friday, a Bloomberg analysis of the central bank’s current account indicates. Tokyo’s latest market entry was likely around ¥2.14 trillion ($13.5 billion), based on a comparison of BoJ current account data and money broker forecasts. The suspected second intervention, if confirmed, would be a fresh example of the government conducting a follow-up move after a larger-scale operation to keep traders on alert.