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Summary – June 10

LATAM
  • The BCB will publish its usual Focus survey on Monday, where attention will be on the CPI and SELIC rate forecasts, which have been rising in recent weeks. Elsewhere, the calendar ahead is light, with just the NY Fed's inflation expectations survey due. On the central bank speaker slate the ECB's Holzmann is appearing later today. Holzmann was reportedly the only dissenter at the ECB's decision to cut rates last week, meaning his appearance today could carry more weight.
  • Global News:
    • EU - European markets have been left reeling by a bruising set of European Parliamentary election results, with right-wing parties across the continent surging ahead in the polls and triggering a wholly unexpected election call from the French President Macron. As such, markets trade with a heavy dose of political risk premium, tipping yields to rise across Europe and weighing on the single currency.
    • US / ISRAEL - Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to meet President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Egypt on Monday as the US attempts to push a last-ditch cease-fire proposal publicly endorsed by President Biden but brushed off so far by both Israel and Hamas. Blinken then travels to Israel where he is expected to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose government is under renewed pressure after retired general Benny Gantz resigned from the emergency war cabinet.
    • EU - The ECB’s next policy decisions will depend on how the economy and inflation will develop, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said in an interview with Latvia’s TV3. He cautioned that “inflation has a tendency to return”, and added that “the financial markets at the moment are pricing in one to two more cuts this year — we will see”. Kazaks said that “the good news is that we are starting to climb down” from the rate peak.
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