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Summary – June 18

LATAM
  • Focus on Tuesday turns to the BCCh monetary policy meeting, where latest surveys point to the central bank slowing the pace of easing with a 25bp cut to 5.75%. In Mexico, Q1 aggregate supply and demand figures will be published, while in Colombia economic activity is expected to rise by 2.5% y/y in April. In Argentina, May budget balance data are due. In the US, attention is on May retail sales data and the industrial production release. Central bank speak is busier, with the ECB's Cipollone, de Guindos and Knot as well as the Fed's Barkin, Collins, Logan, Kugler and Goolsbee.
  • Global News:
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers Tuesday the Board could raise the policy interest rate at the July 30-31 meeting when the bank announces the detailed plan to reduce its government bond buying. Ueda, however, noted that raising the policy interest rate will depend on developments of economic activity and prices at that time. He also said that any decision to hike would be separate from the JGB reductions.
    • RUSSIA / NORTH KOREA – Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting North Korea and Vietnam in rare trips to long-time partners as he faces renewed challenges in his war on Ukraine. Putin is in North Korea from Tuesday and Wednesday and will go on to Vietnam from there through Thursday, according to Kremlin statements. Kim Jong Un’s regime has been a steadfast supporter of Putin’s war on Ukraine and the two countries are set to deepen their military cooperation during the visit.
    • GOLD – A large number of central banks are still planning to buy gold in the coming year, spurred by heightened geopolitical and financial risks. About 20 central banks expect to raise their holdings, according to a World Gold Council report. That’s the highest since the WGC started its gold reserves survey in 2018. Buying by central banks has underpinned the precious metal’s record-breaking rally this year, countering a stronger dollar and the shifting outlook for interest rates, which would typically undermine gold.
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