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Summary – March 07

LATAM
  • Mexico CPI inflation data for February are released Thursday, with implications for this month’s Banxico policy meeting. Colombia February CPI data will also be published after the market close. Brazil January budget balance and Chile February trade data will cross, alongside Chile nominal wages for January. On the monetary policy front, the BCRP is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut this evening, while maintaining a cautious tone. In the US, weekly jobless claims data are due, while Powell’s makes his second appearance in front of lawmakers - where he appears in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
  • YEN - the Japanese yen has climbed to a one-month high on Thursday, with Japanese bank shares rising and government bonds dropping as wage data and union wage increases have boosted speculation the central bank may raise interest rates later in March. USDJPY dropped over 1% to 147.85 at typing.
  • EU - Focus for the duration of the Thursday session rests on the ECB rate decision, at which the bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged - with markets watching the updated macroeconomic projections for any clues on ECB policy through the summer months.
  • Global News:
    • US - President Joe Biden’s campaign plans to ramp up attacks on Donald Trump’s economic agenda for a second term, a shift from its current focus on the former president’s actions when he occupied the White House.
    • ISRAEL - Al Jazeera report that Israel have rejected a Hamas request for a permanent ceasefire, according to sources - with mediators trying, but failing, to bridge a gap between the two sides.
    • CHINA - China's exports registered a 7.1% y/y increase in the first two months of 2024, leading a strong start to the year, data released by Customs on Thursday showed. Imports rose 3.5% y/y between Jan-Feb period, marking the quickest rate of growth for the period. The increase in volume and commodity prices drove the gains. The trade surplus over the first two months was USD125.2 billion, following December's USD75.34 billion surplus.

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