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Summary – March 20

LATAM
  • The Fed rate decision understandably takes focus on Wednesday, and while markets expect little in terms of policy changes, the fresh dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections release will be carefully eyed. In LatAm, the highlight will be the Copom meeting in Brazil, where another 50bp Selic rate cut to 10.75% is widely expected. The market will be watching for any change to the forward guidance regarding the pace of rate cuts ahead. Argentina Q4 GDP will also cross, while the Banamex survey of economists will be published in Mexico.
  • Elsewhere, ECB speak remains thick and fast, with appearances from ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, Nagel and Villeroy all scheduled.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – the FOMC will hold rates at the presumed peak of 5.25-5.50% today, while reiterating its cut-leaning forward guidance. Incoming data provides the FOMC with both the justification and the flexibility to be patient before making the first cut. It’s unlikely the signal provided by the Dot Plot / economic projections will be much different to the last edition in December, while the Statement will be little changed after January’s overhaul.
    • EU (MNI) – the ECB can’t commit to further reductions in borrowing costs after a likely first move in June, according to President Christine Lagarde. In a speech Wednesday, Lagarde reiterated that “when it comes to the data that is relevant for our policy decisions, we will know a bit more by April and a lot more by June.” Beyond that, the monetary-policy path is unclear.
    • US / CHINA – the Biden administration is considering blacklisting a number of Chinese semiconductor firms linked to Huawei Technologies Co. after the telecom giant notched a significant technological breakthrough last year, people familiar with the matter said. Such a move would mark another escalation in a US campaign to ringfence and curtail Beijing’s AI and semiconductor ambitions.
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