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Summary – March 22

LATAM
  • In Colombia, BanRep is expected to step up the pace of easing today, with a 50bp cut in the policy rate to 12.25%. Mexico bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of March will also cross, alongside January economic activity. Elsewhere, focus rests on the central bank speaker slate, with the ECB’s Centeno and Lane and the Fed’s Barr and Bostic set to make appearances. Powell will also deliver opening remarks at a Fed Listens event.
  • Global News:
    • ECB (MNI) – The probability the ECB cuts interest rates before the summer break “is increasing”, with the June meeting having a higher probability than April’s, Bundesbank Governor Joachim Nagel told an MNI Webcast event on Friday. However, he added that he sees no “kind of automatism” or clear sequence once the ECB start cutting rates and that it will continue with its data-dependent approach. The easing cycle should run at a smooth rhythm during this year and 2025.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – Potential Fed rate cuts later this year, or even a further hold, will give the PBoC greater ability to ease in the second half, policy advisors and officials told MNI. The PBOC has typically eased tactfully due to the yuan’s weakness against the dollar, a former PBOC official told MNI, noting any Fed cut or hold in H2 will generate benign conditions and aid the central bank's various tasks, such as boosting domestic credit demand.
    • US – The Biden administration is poised to award as much as $6.3bn in dozens of grants to help hard-to-decarbonise industries cut emissions, according to people familiar with the matter. Details on the projects that have received funding are expected to be announced as soon as Monday. The grants will be spread across sectors such as cement, glass, chemicals, metals, and pulp and paper.
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