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Summary of Analyst Previews

RIKSBANK

A reminder that we have the Riksbank decision and MPR due to be published at 8:30GMT/9:30CET.

  • We have read through 13 sellside previews. None look for changes to the repo rate or SEK700bln QE ceiling.
  • Only TD Securities explicitly mentions the risk of "some small odds" of a hike being reflected in the repo rate path for 2024. All other analysts' base cases are for the repo rate path to remain at zero throughout the forecast horizon.
  • Of those that specify, the majority's base case is for Q2 QE purchases to be SEK80bln (a lot of the previews don't mention the pace). SEB expects SEK100bln.
  • Again, of those who specify all analysts look for the breakdown of QE purchases to remain unchanged from the Q1 proportions.
  • The Riksbank is expected to maintain a dovish tone and to not verbally rule out rate cuts.
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