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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • All 26 analyst previews that we have read look for a 25bp February hike as their base case. It is also notable that every analyst also sees at least two 25bp hikes in 2022.
  • Only Berenberg explicitly state that they do not expect an immediate end to QE reinvestments immediately. Berenberg expects the gilt maturing in March to be reinvested with the passive QT decision being taken in May-22.
  • Timing of next hike after February (out of 24 analysts): A majority expect a May hike to follow the February hike.
    • 1 analyst expects March (4%)
    • 15 analysts expect May/Q2 (63%)
    • 6 analysts expect August / Q3 (25%)
    • 2 analysts expect November / Q4 (8%)
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