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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • All 22 analyst previews that we have read look for a 25bp hike this week.
  • 9 of those analysts expect the subsequent following hike to come in June, 11 expect it in August while two expect it to be the final hike of 2022.
  • Views on the vote breakdown are more nuanced.
    • Out of 15 analysts, 10 see the only dissent to be for on hold. Of these 6-7 expect just one dissenter. Credit Suisse expects three votes for an unchanged rate this week.
    • Of the 5 who expect to see votes for 50bp, only Goldman Sachs and Rabobank expect more than one hawkish dissenter.
    • Bank of America is alone in explicitly expecting Cunliffe to vote for a hike.
  • On QT, Danske Bank and Daiwa are alone in explicitly expecting gilt sales to be announced this week (although more see it as a risk). BofA and Citi also expect active gilt sales to begin before the August meeting.
    • Another 4/16 see a prospect of earlier than Q4-22.
    • Half of analysts (8/16) expect QT to begin in November 2022 or in 2023.
  • In terms of the expected pace of active gilt sales, most analysts expect somewhere in the region of GBP2-5bln/month.
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