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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • 18/23 analysts expect the next hike to be in June (up from 10 pre-meeting), with the remaining 5 looking for August. All analysts now expect at least one more hike this year (two had previously looked for May to be the final hike). And most analysts looking for an August hike see risks of a June hike.
  • On QT, 4/16 analysts see a start in September, 5/16 expect a start in Q4 while 7/16 expect sales to start next year (although some expect the announcement to take place this year with sales starting next year).
  • In terms of the expected pace of active gilt sales, most analysts expect somewhere in the region of GBP2-5bln/month, with the median around GBP10bln/quarter.
  • 5 analysts see cuts in their base case: Citi (50bp in 2023), BofA (cut in 2023), Daiwa (25bp in 2023), Deutsche Bank (50bp by end-2024), Goldman Sachs (25bp in Nov-24). Barclays and Rabobank also see the narrative switching to the possibility of cuts.
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