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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • 14/22 (64%) of analyst previews that we have read look for a 50bp hike this week while the remainder expect a 25bp hike (8 analysts, 36%).
  • Most expect the “forceful” language to be removed but optionality to remain for a further 50bp hike.
  • In terms of the vote split if there is a 50bp hike, most look for either a unanimous or a 7-2 decision. If there is a 25bp hike, most expect a 6-3 split.
  • 15/22 analysts (68%) then expect a 25bp hike in September.
  • 4 analysts look for a second 50bp hike in September (GS, Deutsche, SocGen, Berenberg). Citi see potential for at least one 50bp hike at some point this year.
  • 3 analysts expect no September hike: Rabobank and UniCredit’s base case sees the August hike as the last while NatWest Markets expects a pause before a further November hike.
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