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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • We have compiled a subset of 13 analyst views – all of which have updated or reaffirmed their forecasts following the energy support scheme announced by Prime Minister Liz Truss last week.
  • 11/13 (85%) of analysts look for a 50bp hike in September while BNP and JP Morgan look for a 75bp hike (15%). This is below market pricing of 65bp (which implies around a 60% probability of a 75bp hike with 50bp fully priced).
  • Terminal rate expectations are 75-100bp higher than following the August meeting, but still below market expectations: The median is 3.50% (up from 2.50% following the August MPC meeting) while 62% of analysts expect a terminal rate of in a 3.00%-3.50% range. The terminal rate according to market pricing is around 4.33% at the time of writing.
  • The terminal rate according to market pricing is around 4.33% at the time of writing.
  • 4 analysts explicitly say they expect cuts in 2023 (down from 7).

For the full document, including summaries of 13 sellside analyst views see the full document here.

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