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Summary of Analyst Views (2/2)

BOE
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 26 analysts): Only Goldman Sachs and Nomura expect four hikes this year as their base case. Other analysts are almost evenly split between 0.75% and 1.00%.
    • 2 analysts look for 1.25% (8%)
    • 11 analysts look for 1.00% (42%)
    • 1 analyst looks for 0.75% or 1.00% (4%)
    • 12 analysts look for 0.75% (46%)
  • Bank Rate at end 2023 (out of 15 analysts): Again, fairly even split of expectations, ranging from 0.75% to 1.75%.
    • 2 analysts expect 1.75% (13%)
    • 4 analysts expect 1.50% (27%)
    • 4 analysts expect 1.25% (27%)
    • 3 analysts expect 1.00% (20%)
    • 2 analysts expect 0.75% (13%)
  • In terms of decisions on active QT, many analysts did not lay out explicit expectations as to whether it would happen immediately as Bank Rate reached 1.00%. There were even fewer analysts with a base case of the pace of active QT with estimates ranging from GBP20bln/year to GBP20bln/quarter.
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