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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BOE
- Terminal rate expectations considerably higher than they were ahead of the September MPC meeting, but still below market expectations:
- The median is 4.25% (up from 3.50% ahead of the September MPC meeting but down from an intermeeting peak of 4.50%) while the mode is 100bp higher than ahead of the September MPC meeting at 4.50%.
- 86% of analysts expect a terminal rate in a 3.75%-4.75% range (ahead of the September MPC meeting 82% of analysts expected a terminal rate of in a 3.00%-4.00% range). The terminal rate according to market pricing is around 4.85% at the time of writing, down from a peak of around 6.2%.
- Only BofA, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs explicitly look for a May 2023 hike.
- Barclays, Berenberg and SEB expect the last hike to be in December with the vast majority expecting a final hike in Q1-23.
- Only Berenberg sees rate cuts in its base case before the end of 2023. It sees 50bp of cuts in H2-23 to bring Bank Rate back to 3.00%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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