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Summary of Analyst Views

BOE
  • A split vote on whether to complete the current QE programme is expected today by 16/17 of the analysts who explicitly stated their voting expectations. 4 analysts see 6-2 as their base case, 2 analysts are on the fence between 6-2 and 7-1 while 9 analysts look for 7-1 and one analyst is on the fence between 7-1 and 8-0.
  • There is also not a clear conviction that the sequencing review will be published as part of the August meeting. 5 analysts explicitly look for August, 2 look for November but most note that it could be August or November.
  • Five analysts in our survey have moved from looking for a first hike in 2023 to 2022 since the June meeting. HSBC changed its view immediately after the June meeting while Deutsche Bank, NatWest Markets, RBC and UBS have all changed their view on the first hike in the past week and a half.
  • Growth forecasts are largely expected to be left largely unchanged in the medium-term with the peak unemployment forecast revised down a little while inflation forecasts at the 2/3-year horizon are expected to come in around the 2.0% mark (with NatWest Markets explicitly looking for above 2.0% in 3-years time).
  • For more see the full MNI Bank of England Preview here.
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