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Summary of Analyst Views: Hawkish to Dovish (3/6)

BOE
NatWest MarketsSee 65% prob of Feb22 hike ("dependent on Omicron having a relatively benign economic impact"). Further 25bp in Aug22. Greater risk of 2023 hikes than more in 2022.
BarclaysMPC views "Omicron as a transitory complication". Expect 25bp hikes in Feb22 and May22 (Bank Rate at 0.75% in May as previously). Then on hold with "material risks" of 2023 cuts.
Berenberg25bp hike in Feb22 but still look for March APF reinvestment with passive QE starting after the May22 MPC meeting. Bank Rate at 0.75% by end-2022, 1.25% 2023 and 1.75% 2024.
RBCExpect a follow up 25bp in Feb22 but Omicron impact could either see delay to hike or reinvestments for March gilt continue despite hike. Further 25bp hike in Aug22.

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