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Summary of analyst views

BOE
  • There is a unanimous expectation among sell-side economists that Bank Rate will be raised in both August and September.
  • Analysts are almost equally split between a terminal rate of 5.50% and 5.75% - with only NatWest explicitly looking for a 6.00% terminal rate in their base case.
  • For the August meeting, only around 1/3 of analysts (7/23) expect a 50bp hike, the remainder expect a 25bp hike. However, all those who look for a 50bp hike except NatWest see the final hike in September.
  • In terms of the timing of the final hike, most expect September with around 1/4 (6/23) expecting November.
  • The majority of analysts see upside risks to their call – with only a few seeing balanced risks and none seeing downside risks.

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