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Corporate Credit Update: Cooling

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Summary of Analyst Views for 2022

BOE
  • 13/23 (57%) of analyst previews that we have read look for a 50bp hike in September while the remainder expect a 25bp hike (10 analysts, 43%).
  • Prior to the meeting 5/23 had look for 50bp (22%), 15/23 for 25bp (65%) and 3/23 for rates unchanged (13%) – or to look at this another way 5/23 had looked for 2.25% (22%), 10/23 for 2.00% (43%), 5/23 for 1.75% (22%) and 3/23 for 1.50% (13%).
  • 17/22 (77%) of analysts expect a follow up 25bp hike in November.
  • NatWest Markets looks for a further 50bp hike in November (following 50bp in September).
  • CIBC, ING and JP Morgan all look for a 50bp September hike, but no November hike.
  • Barclays is the only analyst looking for a final 25bp September hike.
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 23 analysts): The median is 2.50% (previously 2.00%) while 92% of analysts expect Bank Rate to end 2022 in a 2.25%-2.75% range (previously 87% had expected in a 1.75%-2.50% range).
    • NatWest Markets looks for 3.00% (4% up from 0%)
    • 5 analysts look for 2.75% (22% up from 4%)
    • 8 analysts look for 2.50% (35% up from 17%)
    • 8 analysts look for 2.25% (35% up from 26%)
    • Barclays looks for 2.00% (4% down from 30%)
    • No analysts look for 1.75% (0% down from 13%)
    • No analysts look for 1.50% (0% down from 9%)
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  • 13/23 (57%) of analyst previews that we have read look for a 50bp hike in September while the remainder expect a 25bp hike (10 analysts, 43%).
  • Prior to the meeting 5/23 had look for 50bp (22%), 15/23 for 25bp (65%) and 3/23 for rates unchanged (13%) – or to look at this another way 5/23 had looked for 2.25% (22%), 10/23 for 2.00% (43%), 5/23 for 1.75% (22%) and 3/23 for 1.50% (13%).
  • 17/22 (77%) of analysts expect a follow up 25bp hike in November.
  • NatWest Markets looks for a further 50bp hike in November (following 50bp in September).
  • CIBC, ING and JP Morgan all look for a 50bp September hike, but no November hike.
  • Barclays is the only analyst looking for a final 25bp September hike.
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 23 analysts): The median is 2.50% (previously 2.00%) while 92% of analysts expect Bank Rate to end 2022 in a 2.25%-2.75% range (previously 87% had expected in a 1.75%-2.50% range).
    • NatWest Markets looks for 3.00% (4% up from 0%)
    • 5 analysts look for 2.75% (22% up from 4%)
    • 8 analysts look for 2.50% (35% up from 17%)
    • 8 analysts look for 2.25% (35% up from 26%)
    • Barclays looks for 2.00% (4% down from 30%)
    • No analysts look for 1.75% (0% down from 13%)
    • No analysts look for 1.50% (0% down from 9%)