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Summary of Analyst Views for 2023

BOE
  • Bank Rate at end 2023 (out of 18 analysts): The median looks for 2.375% (previously 2.25%) with 90% of analysts expecting Bank Rate in a 2.00-2.75% range – previously 88% in a 2.00-2.75% range. As we discussed in the 2022 summary of views, we are generally starting 2023 from a higher base.
    • Credit Suisse expects 3.00% (5% from 6%)
    • 5 analysts expect 2.75% (25% from 29%)
    • 4 analysts expect 2.50% (20% from 12%)
    • 3 analysts expects 2.25% (15% from 12%)
    • 6 analysts expect 2.00% (30% from 35%)
    • Citi expects 1.75% (5% from 6%)
  • 8/18 analysts expect cuts in 2023 (up from 4), with most expecting cuts to not begin before August (with the exception of Nomura who looks for the first cut in May 2023).
  • Only 3/18 analysts expect hikes in 2023 (down from 4): Credit Suisse to 3.00% in Q1-23, Bank of America in February and May to 2.75% and JP Morgan in August and November to 2.75%.

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