Summary of SocGen's call for FOMC: This.........>

FED: Summary of SocGen's call for FOMC: This meeting is about communicating

policy intentions as economy reopens/recovers.

- SEP: Median FF dot to hold at 0 through 2022, heavy concentration at zero for

2020+2021, while for 2022 could see dots drift up while median holds steady.

Would push back against negative rate speculation as well.

- Differences to mainstream macro ests. should attract major attention. Infl

should reach 2.0% soon in the SEP. How confident is Fed in that view? Who knows?

- Fwd guidance: Fed is currently offering the most generic communication:

remaining accommodative until confident on track for dual mandate - no

quantifiable time period nor numerical target. Expect nuance and specifications

to these elements in coming months and quarters.

- YCC: Fed to shift to YCC, but there are many interim steps the Fed might take.

- QE: Fed has slowed purchases to $4.0bln a day, and we have looked for the Fed

to slow the pace, but what next? Further slowing but more gradually.

- Negative rates: Never say never; only if economy fell back in 2021-22 w

unemployment too high. There is a point at which Fed would respond with NIRP.