Sunak Gov't Faces Difficult Set Of Local Elections

Voters in areas of England go to the polls tomorrow on 4 May to elect local councilors. The result will not have any market impact, but will be viewed by observers as an indication of the strength of the main political parties just over six months into PM Rishi Sunak's tenure in No.10 Downing Street.

• The last time that these areas were up for election was May 2019, seen as a poor result for the centre-right Conservatives. Then-PM Theresa May was in the midst of internal dissent over her Brexit legislation and lost over 1,000 seats. As such, there are already fewer seats possible for the Conservatives to lose than if they were coming off of a strong result in 2019.
• Local elections are seen by many as chances for voters to express dissatisfaction with the gov't, before reverting to supporting that party in general elections. It should be noted that Westminster opinion polls show the Conservatives trailing the main opposition centre-left Labour Party by ~15%, but a loss at the worse end of expectations for the Conservatives (1,000 seats) may not be as terminal as it first appears.
• For Labour, the speculation is that the party is confident of picking up 400 council seats. Again much like the Conservatives 1,000 seat loss figure likely an exercise in expectation management.
• The centrist Liberal Democrats have a strong history in winning local gov't seats, and could make significant gains at the expense of the Conservatives in the party's southern English heartlands.