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Supply Chain Improvements Slow In Regional Fed Surveys

US DATA
  • Within the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, supply chain issues nudged higher as vendor lead times and backlog of orders increased slightly, albeit after “dramatic improvements throughout this year”.
  • Kansas bucked the trend with a series low in Nov (i.e. fastest times) but on balance this pause in supply chain improvements in Nov was seen on average across other Regional Fed surveys to date (NY, Philly & Kansas).
  • There’s a similar story when looking at 6-month ahead expectations of delivery times, off lows (i.e. fastest levels) but in both cases continuing to imply easier supply chain conditions than those in a composite measure such as the NY Fed’s GSCPI – see charts.
  • The sharp improvement over the past six months can't specifically be pinpointed to improvements in supply capacity as it could equally be these manufacturing sectors are seeing a faster fall in demand, but equally, the level does at least continue to point to an easing in pressures that should help further moderate goods price inflation.

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