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Supply Concern For Summer 2023 As Winter Fears Ease

LNG

The global competition for LNG, largely driven by Europe, has eased amid signs that the continent will have sufficient natural gas to cover winter heating demand.

  • The North Asia spot price has dropped for the last seven weeks and is now below the 29.50$/mmbtu from this time last year.
  • JKM monthly forward prices are largely steady until Jun 2023 but increase to around 32$/mmbtu and over during H2 2023 counter to the normal seasonality of lower summer prices.
  • Market supplies are likely to remain tight over the summer and into next winter with strong competition for LNG to refill storage. IEA last week forecast a possible 30bcm supply-demand gap in Europe without Russian pipeline flows and if Chinese demand recovers.
  • TTF DEC 22 down -2.3% at 112.15€/MWh
  • JKM Dec 22 up 0.9% at 28.93$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Dec 22 up 1.1$/mmbtu at -3.48$/mmbtu

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