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Supply continues weighing on spreads; €IG skewed wider

CREDIT MACRO

Supply continues to not be taken well - Engie (Baa1, BBB+; S), an index heavyweight (w0.9%), coming with benchmark 3-part shifting secondary +4-8 wider - that's despite rates still supporting yields as EU area inflation partials roll-in; based on it our Economist see national CPI (non-HICP print) rising by +0.5% m/m and 2.6% y/y - in line with consensus expectations - it prints at 1pm London.

Corp spreads underperformed on yest's sell-off (+2.5 vs. +1.5) and now lags the financials rally by 10bps - that's despite supply still remaining ~relatively evenly skewed. There's signs of that continuing today.

M&A fuelled issuance continued in $IG yesterday with Aon's $6b - books coverage was strong at aggregate but NIC's were larger as well (single digits on offer).

$ETF flows continue to be net flat - doesn't seem to be a pain-point yet but might turn into one on any easing in ex. ETF/mutual fund flows.

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