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Supply Fears Drive TTF Higher

NATURAL GAS

European gas prices continue upwards with fears that a halt to Russian supply will limit the ability to fill storage ahead of the winter and will struggle to meet winter demand.

  • TTF SEP 22 up 2.8% at 284.5€/MWh
  • TTF at one point yesterday surged as high as 295€/MWh before settling back at a record 284.25€/MWh. Nord Stream will go on maintenance on Aug 31 for three days with concerns flows will not resume following the outage.
  • Europe is attempting to cut gas demand with reports that current German industrial and power demand is now 26% below normal. Recent hot dry weather had put extra pressure on European gas demand with lower nuclear, hydro and coal fired power generation.
  • A reduced output from Norway due to outages is not helping the tight supply situation with nominations today about 20mcm/d below at 312.2mcm/d. Russian supply is today stable at 31.9mcm through Nord Stream and 42.1mcm through Ukraine.
  • Overall European gas storage is in line with the 5-year average and now up to 77.42%. Storage in Germany is up to 80.14%, Italy to 79.72%, France at 89.51% and Netherlands at 72.7%.

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